As we reach the midpoint of the year, the freight market looks dramatically different than it did just six months ago. After several years of excess capacity and favorable conditions for shippers, the market has entered a new phase marked by tightening capacity, rising rates, and growing pressure on transportation networks.
Capacity: Carrier capacity has contracted significantly over the past several months. A combination of carrier exits, stricter FMCSA enforcement, ELD decertification, rising insurance costs, increased carrier vetting requirements, and reductions in non-domicile CDL drivers has removed meaningful capacity from the market. As a result, shippers are encountering a much tighter environment than they have experienced in recent years.
Rates: The impact of tightening capacity is being felt across the market. Spot rates have risen rapidly, with all-in spot rates approximately 30–40% higher than this time last year. Contract rates are beginning to follow, as carriers regain pricing power and transportation costs reset higher. Seasonal demand and continued capacity constraints are expected to keep upward pressure on rates through the remainder of the year.
Demand Signals: While the current market recovery is largely supply-driven, demand remains resilient. AI-driven data center construction, infrastructure projects, and energy investments are creating strong demand for flatbed capacity. Consumer spending has remained stronger than expected, and inventory levels have fallen to some of their lowest levels since the post-pandemic recovery, creating the potential for inventory replenishment activity to generate additional freight demand in the months ahead.
Looking Ahead: The second half of the year is expected to remain challenging for shippers as supply and demand continue to tighten. Key factors to watch include:
- FMCSA enforcement and regulatory activity
- Carrier onboarding and compliance requirements
- Insurance and operating cost pressures
Fetch Freight Outlook: While some temporary relief may emerge as carriers add trucks ahead of EPA 2027 emissions regulations, current indicators suggest meaningful rate relief is unlikely in the near term. Shippers should proactively evaluate transportation strategies, strengthen carrier relationships, and prepare for continued market volatility.
Our team is here to help you navigate changing conditions, secure reliable capacity, and position your supply chain for success in the months ahead. Get a quote today or reach out to your Fetch Freight representative to review your capacity strategy for the second half of the year.
